Shein worth less than its Hong Kong IPO target, analysts say

Bloomberg Intelligence has put a valuation of 22 billion to 25 billion dollars on Shein ahead of the fast fashion retailer's Hong Kong initial public offering (IPO), a range well below the price the company is understood to be seeking. The estimate was reported on Monday.

The figure values Singapore-headquartered Shein, which was founded in mainland China, at about 13 to 15 times projected 2027 earnings. Bloomberg Intelligence, Bloomberg's research arm, uses 2027 rather than 2026 as its base year on the grounds that freight costs and tariffs are weighing on the current year's results. Consumer and technology analysts Catherine Lim and Jason Zhu expect earnings to recover to 1.67 billion dollars in 2027 and then grow by roughly 20 percent a year through 2029.

Shein is targeting a valuation of 30 billion to 40 billion dollars for a listing it could launch as early as mid-August, press agency Reuters reported on August 4, citing three people familiar with the plans. That range would price the company at a premium to the average of global e-commerce and fast fashion peers as well as China-linked platforms, according to Bloomberg Intelligence, while some investors have argued for a figure closer to 30 billion dollars.

Valued between a marketplace and a fast fashion retailer

The analysts place Shein between two comparison groups, and say its multiple range "captures the middle ground" between a China-linked marketplace, which carries lower regulatory risk but narrower margins, and a global fast fashion business with a supply chain built to turn around trends quickly. Bloomberg Intelligence adds that Shein also has to be valued partly as a Chinese exporter, since its manufacturing base remains concentrated in mainland China while most of its earnings are generated abroad, leaving it exposed to shipping costs, tariffs and differing rules across markets.

Hong Kong-listed consumer goods exporters including Lenovo, Haier, Shenzhou, Yue Yuen, Stella International and Crystal International trade at roughly eight to 13 times projected 2027 earnings, Bloomberg Intelligence said. Reaching the upper end of Shein's own target would, in the analysts' view, require investors to bet on both a clean shift in mix towards its marketplace business and faultless regulatory execution in Europe.

Slowing growth weighs on the price

The estimate follows Shein's first detailed disclosure of its financial position. Its draft prospectus, filed with the Hong Kong Stock Exchange last month, showed a net loss of 99 million dollars in the first quarter of 2026 against a net profit of 395 million dollars a year earlier, with revenue up only marginally to 9.05 billion dollars from 8.95 billion dollars.

For the wider trade, the numbers reset where Shein sits among listed apparel groups. At the 30 billion to 40 billion dollars it is seeking, the company would rank broadly alongside H&M, worth about 26 billion dollars, but far below Fast Retailing at about 161 billion dollars and Zara owner Inditex at about 208 billion dollars, according to Reuters. At Bloomberg Intelligence's estimate, it would sit below H&M.

Shein won approval from the China Securities Regulatory Commission for the Hong Kong listing on July 10, after unsuccessful attempts to float in New York and London. The company is also under investigation by the US Federal Trade Commission, a matter it disclosed in the same filing.

This article was written with the assistance of AI.